Virality Is Rare and Unpredictable: Why Brands Should Stop Chasing It

By German Tirado, August 19 2025

Introduction: The Viral Mirage in Marketing

In today’s digital-first world, marketers are often tempted by the promise of virality. Social media platforms are filled with case studies, headlines, and conference talks about brands that supposedly transformed overnight thanks to a single viral video or post. The myth sounds convincing: if we can just create the right piece of content, it will spread organically, reach millions of people, and drive instant growth.

But marketing science shows otherwise. Virality in marketing is rare, unpredictable, and not a sustainable strategy for brand growth [1]. Most viral content generates fleeting attention but fails to create lasting memory structures that influence future buying decisions. Even when content spreads widely, it often reaches audiences outside the category people who may never buy from you. The viral content myth confuses momentary popularity with long-term penetration.

Decades of empirical research confirm that brands do not grow by chasing viral moments. Instead, they grow by consistently building mental availability (how easily buyers think of a brand in purchase situations) and physical availability (how easy the brand is to buy, across channels, formats, and locations) [2]. Sustainable brand growth strategies rely on broad-reach advertising, the consistent use of distinctive brand assets, and linking the brand to multiple Category Entry Points (CEPs)—the cues that trigger buyer decisions [3].

The truth is simple but often overlooked: while viral fame makes headlines, it is mental and physical availability that make sales. This article dismantles the viral content myth, explains why virality is not a reliable path to growth, and shows the evidence-backed strategies that truly drive brands forward.

Introduction: The Viral Mirage in Marketing
The Myth of Virality
The Evidence for Predictable Growth
Why Brands Grow Without Virality
What Marketers Should Do Instead
Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)
Conclusion: Growth Comes from Science, Not Virality
Works Cited

The Myth of Virality

The Myth of Virality

1. Virality Is Statistically Rare

Despite the hype, research shows that only a tiny percentage of content achieves true virality [1]. The vast majority of campaigns—even creative, well-produced ones—barely ripple beyond their intended reach. Betting your growth strategy on virality is no different from relying on lottery tickets for retirement.

2. Virality Is Unpredictable

There is no reliable formula for making something go viral. Timing, platform algorithms, social moods, and random cultural sparks play bigger roles than planning. Even brands that have had one viral success rarely repeat it. This makes virality impossible to build a marketing system around [1].

3. Viral Reach ≠ Buyer Reach

Even when a campaign does go viral, most of the exposure may be wasted. Viral content often spreads among people who are not in the category, have no purchase intent, or simply see it as entertainment. While fun, this rarely translates into sales [2].

The Evidence for Predictable Growth

Mental Availability: Being Easy to Think Of

When buyers enter a category, they don’t carefully research every option. Instead, they draw on mental shortcuts known as Category Entry Points (CEPs) cues like:

When I need quick delivery.

While setting up a new office.

With colleagues at a client meeting.

Brands linked to more CEPs are recalled more often, and therefore chosen more frequently [3]. Viral stunts don’t usually build these links; consistent advertising that connects brand assets to CEPs does.

Physical Availability: Being Easy to Buy

Being widely distributed in more formats, sizes, and channels makes a brand easier to purchase. This explains why larger brands keep growing—they are more physically available. A viral campaign can’t overcome limited distribution [2].

The 95–5 Rule: Why Consistency Wins

At any point, only about 5% of B2B buyers are in-market, while 95% are not yet ready to buy [1]. Advertising works by planting and refreshing brand memories in the 95%—so that when they eventually enter the market, your brand comes to mind. Viral campaigns are too fleeting to sustain this memory building.

Why Brands Grow Without Virality

Double Jeopardy Law
Smaller brands not only have fewer buyers but also slightly less loyal ones. Growth comes by reaching more buyers, not by squeezing more loyalty from a small base [2].
Duplication of Purchase Law
Buyers shop across multiple brands in a category (polygamous loyalty). Viral campaigns don’t change this; they don’t create exclusivity. Instead, broad-reach availability gets you included in more baskets [2].
Category Entry Points in Action
Evidence from B2B insurance shows that brands linked to more CEPs have lower churn and higher acquisition [3]. The more cues a brand is linked to (“when renewing,” “when expanding coverage”), the higher the chance it is recalled at the buying moment. Virality doesn’t achieve this long-term linkage.

What Marketers Should Do Instead

1. Invest in Broad Reach

Reach as many category buyers as possible, consistently. Viral bursts are no substitute for reliable exposure.

2. Build Distinctive Assets

Logos, colors, taglines, sonic cues, these make your brand instantly recognizable, even in fleeting exposures [2].

3. Link to Multiple Category Entry Points

Develop campaigns that associate your brand with diverse buying cues across the “Revised W’s”: When, Where, While, With/Instead-of, With/For Whom, How Feeling, Why [3]. Rotate creative focus to build a wider, fresher memory network.

4. Expand Physical Availability

Increase distribution, pack sizes, pricing options, and purchase channels. Fame without availability is wasted.

5. Measure What Matters

Instead of tracking “likes” and “shares,” measure:

Mental market share (% of buyers recalling your brand at CEPs).
Penetration (% of category buyers purchasing your brand).
Distinctive asset salience (% recognition of logos, colors, sonic cues).

FAQs

Q: Isn’t viral content at least useful for awareness?

A: Occasionally—but only if branding is strong and linked to buying cues. Most viral hits are remembered for the joke, not the brand [2].

Q: Should we abandon creative ambition?

A: No. Creativity matters when it builds brand salience and links to CEPs. The goal is distinctiveness plus reach, not cleverness for its own sake [3].

Q: How often should we refresh campaigns?

A: Memory links decay. Refresh each CEP-focused execution at least twice per year to maintain mental availability [3].

Conclusion: Growth Comes from Science, Not Virality

The dream of creating a viral hit is seductive. Marketers picture their brand exploding overnight, propelled by millions of shares and likes. But the evidence is overwhelming: virality in marketing is rare, unpredictable, and unreliable [1]. A single viral moment may deliver short-term attention, but it does not build the memory structures or availability that brands need for sustained growth.

Instead of chasing the viral content myth, successful marketers anchor their efforts in the proven laws of marketing science. These laws show that brands grow when they consistently increase:

Mental availability—being easily thought of in buying situations, through repeated exposure and strong links to multiple Category Entry Points [3].

Physical availability—making the brand easy to buy, across channels, price points, formats, and geographies [2].

Distinctive asset salience—ensuring the brand is instantly recognizable through logos, colors, taglines, and sonic cues.

These strategies are not glamorous or headline-grabbing in the way a viral video might be, but they are reliable, predictable, and repeatable. They reach more buyers, both light and heavy, and ensure your brand comes to mind when purchase decisions are made.

In other words: brands do not grow by rolling the dice on viral content. They grow by making themselves easy to think of, easy to buy, and distinctive across many buying situations. This requires patience, broad-reach campaigns, and consistent execution—not a one-off viral stunt.

So the next time someone on your team suggests betting on virality, remember: lightning may strike once, but science works every time. If you want real, sustainable growth, invest in brand growth strategies grounded in mental availability, physical availability, Category Entry Points, and marketing science. That’s how brands grow—not through unpredictable virality, but through predictable reach and availability.

Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs)

Q1: What does “virality in marketing” actually mean?

Virality in marketing refers to content that spreads rapidly across digital platforms through shares, likes, and engagement. While exciting, research shows that true virality is rare and unpredictable, making it an unreliable foundation for brand growth strategies [1].

Q2: Why is the viral content myth misleading?

The viral content myth suggests that one successful viral campaign can transform a brand. In reality, most viral content creates only temporary attention, reaches many people outside the category, and fails to build lasting mental availability or physical availability [2].

Q3: If virality doesn’t drive brand growth, what does?

Brands grow by making themselves easy to think of and easy to buy. This means building mental availability through consistent advertising linked to multiple Category Entry Points (CEPs), and strengthening physical availability through wide distribution, formats, and purchase options [2][3].

Q4: What are Category Entry Points, and why do they matter?

Category Entry Points (CEPs) are the cues buyers use when deciding what brand to buy, such as “when I need fast delivery” or “while planning an office move.” Brands that are linked to more CEPs come to mind more often and are chosen more frequently. Viral stunts rarely build these associations [3].

Q5: Is viral content completely useless for marketing?

Not entirely. If a viral campaign is strongly branded and links directly to buying cues, it can contribute to mental availability. However, because virality is unpredictable, it should never be the core of a brand growth strategy [2].

Q6: How can we measure success beyond virality?

Instead of tracking likes and shares, measure meaningful metrics such as:

Penetration (% of category buyers purchasing your brand)
Mental market share (% of buyers recalling your brand at buying moments)
Distinctive asset salience (recognition of brand logos, colors, sonic cues)
Reach and frequency (ongoing exposure to category buyers)

Q7: Can small brands grow without viral content?

Yes. In fact, most brands that grow never achieve viral success. By following marketing science—expanding reach, building distinctive assets, linking to CEPs, and increasing availability—small brands can steadily grow penetration and market share without relying on unpredictable virality [2].

Works cited

[1] Dawes, J. (2021). Advertising Effectiveness and the 95–5 Rule: Most B2B Buyers Are Not in the Market Right Now. Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science.

[2] Sharp, B. (2010). How Brands Grow: What Marketers Don’t Know. Oxford University Press.

[3] Romaniuk, J., & Sharp, B. (2016). How Brands Grow Part 2: Emerging Markets, Services, Durables, New and Luxury Categories. Oxford University Press.

[4] Romaniuk, J. (2022). Category Entry Points in a Business-to-Business (B2B) World. Ehrenberg-Bass Institute for Marketing Science.